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Russian prisoners of war who were captured by Ukrainian army arrive to Russian side on December 31 after a swap with Ukrainian soldiers. Screenshot courtesy of Russian Defense Ministry press office |
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Feb. 17 (UPI) --
If Vladimir Putin launches a new offensive in Ukraine this spring as expected, the key to its success or failure will be the ordinary Russian soldier.
Moscow has shown little consideration for these soldiers over the past 12 months. In February 2022 troops who were told that they were
going on routine exercises
instead found themselves fighting a war in Ukraine. Barely trained
conscripts were sent into battle
in defiance of Russia's own laws.
Civilians with medical conditions
that should disqualify them from military service were called up and put into uniform. And men mobilized for wartime service were told to
bring their own medical supplies
because of dire shortages at the front.
Ukrainians have found Russia's soldiers to be everything from
frightened teenagers
who cry when they are captured, to men who
torture, rape and kill civilians
and
prisoners-of-war
with no regard for
the Geneva conventions
. Russia's soldiers have turned out to be very different from the formidable fighting force that many expected a year ago.
Of course, the quality and quantity of manpower is only one of many factors that will shape the way that Russia continues to wage this war, including its commanders'
ability to adjust their tactics
to compensate for the greater range and firepower of the weapons being supplied by Ukraine's Western supporters.
The degree of Russia's success in
replenishing its own supplies
, particularly ammunition, will also be important in determining the intensity of attacks that Moscow is able to sustain against Ukrainian civilians and soldiers alike.
However
Putin's announcement in September
of a "partial mobilization" of 300,000 men for the armed forces suggests that Russia is planning to rely heavily on one of its traditional advantages in war: the ability to
overwhelm the opponent
by the sheer numbers of troops that it can put into the field.
But will Russia be able to continue to mobilize large numbers of its men to fight in this deadly war? Recent U.S. estimates suggest that
nearly 200,000 Russian soldiers
have been killed or injured in Ukraine over the past year. The answer may lie in the complex relationship that Russians have with the armed forces.
Attitudes on military service
A poll conducted in November
by the Levada Center, an independent and highly respected Russian research organization, revealed that 49% of Russians surveyed agree that "every real man should serve in the army."
Opinion polls never convey a perfect understanding of what people really think, and there are good reasons to be
cautious about polling in Russia
since it became
illegal
to protest against the war in Ukraine or to "discredit" the army. However, the Levada Center has been conducting this survey on a regular basis since 1997 and the results have been remarkably stable.
The consistency of these results over the past 25 years suggest that Putin is tapping into powerful cultural beliefs and social norms when he calls on hundreds of thousands of Russia's men to risk their lives to fight in Ukraine.
But despite the widespread and longstanding nature of these attitudes toward the army and military service, before Putin's September mobilization announcement
Russia struggled to recruit
enough soldiers to replace its mounting losses in Ukraine, let alone carry out a strategy of overwhelming force.
The "people's militias" in Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk have had to resort to
heavy-handed tactics
to fill their ranks, amid reports that men in those territories injure themselves or pay bribes to avoid being sent into combat.
In 2022, the Russian Ministry of Defense attempted to meet the need for more soldiers by forming volunteer battalions. This effort achieved only limited success, despite the offer of salaries at up to 10
times the local average
for short-term contracts, and accepting applications from middle-age men in their 40s and 50s.
It was also in the summer of 2022 that the infamous private military company Wagner Group was reduced to searching in Russia's prisons for new recruits to fight in Ukraine.
Convicts were offered
generous salaries and a full pardon if they survived six months of combat, with payments promised to their families if they were killed.
This strategy filled the ranks for a time, but the
flow of volunteers dried up
as reports of the high casualty rates made their way back to prisons. In early February, the head of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin,
announced
that they would no longer seek new members among Russia's convicts.
Tensions, anger, backlash
It is no wonder, then, that Putin hesitated to give the order for a general mobilization,
reportedly fearing a public backlash
against the war and mass resistance to the call up.
And he was right to be concerned. While many men complied with their mobilization orders -- expressing precisely the
views reflected in the Levada Center's surveys
-- hundreds of thousands of others
fled the country
to avoid being sent to fight in Ukraine.
Demographic differences within Russian society help to explain the sharp divisions in these responses to mobilization. The Levada survey revealed that people in the 18-24 age range, along with those who live in Moscow and the larger cities of Russia, are least likely to identify military service with being a "real man." They are also most likely to agree with the statement that "military service is senseless and dangerous and should be avoided at all costs."
But even men who view military service positively and are prepared to do their patriotic duty can still rebel when the state fails to keep its side of the bargain and prepare them adequately for war.
Newly mobilized soldiers
complain
about the lack of training and equipment they are given before facing combat. This dissatisfaction has led to
angry confrontations
between soldiers and their commanders. There are reports that
soldiers are being punished
for refusing to fight. And increasingly they are appealing to the women in their families to intercede with the Ministry of Defense on their behalf.
These tensions in the ranks have serious implications for morale. The contrast with the
high levels of motivation
among Ukrainian soldiers is striking.
One year on from the start of a military operation that Moscow was
expected to win easily
, there are increasing signs of anger, frustration and resistance from ordinary Russian soldiers. These are important reminders that these men are not mindless pawns who will do Putin's bidding under any circumstances.
If Russia is to regain the initiative and the territory that it has lost in Ukraine over the past months, it first needs to regain the trust and goodwill of its soldiers. Whether Russia's political and military leadership is capable of doing that is not clear.
Jennifer Mathers
is a senior lecturer in international politics at
Aberystwyth University
.
This article is republished from
The Conversation
under a Creative Commons license. Read the
original article
.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.